This page is an overview of the decision theory research we (Johannes Treutlein and Caspar Oesterheld) do at FRI. In particular, we discuss the decision theory of Newcomb-like scenarios and whether evidential decision theory is correct and if not, whether and how it can be fixed.
Our work on decision theory
- Caspar Oesterheld (2015): Two-boxing, smoking and chewing gum in Medical Newcomb problems.
- Caspar Oesterheld (2016): Thoughts on Updatelessness.
- Caspar Oesterheld (2016): Environmental and Logical Uncertainty: Reported Environmental Probabilities as Expected Environmental Probabilities under Logical Uncertainty.
- Caspar Oesterheld (2017): Decision Theory and the Irrelevance of Impossible Outcomes.
- Johannes Treutlein (2017): Did EDT get it right all along? Introducing yet another medical Newcomb problem.
- Johannes Treutlein (2017): “Betting on the Past” by Arif Ahmed.
- Johannes Treutlein (2017): Anthropic uncertainty in the Evidential Blackmail.
- Caspar Oesterheld (2017): Are causal decision theorists trying to outsmart conditional probabilities?
- Caspar Oesterheld (2017): Multiverse-wide Cooperation via Correlated Decision Making. Only section 2 and parts of the appendix are about decision theory itself.
- Caspar Oesterheld (2017): Naturalized induction – a challenge for evidential and causal decision theory.
- Caspar Oesterheld (2017): Doing what has worked well in the past leads to evidential decision theory.
- A comprehensive list of decision theories
- A survey of polls on Newcomb’s problem
- An overview of why we think that the Smoking Lesion doesn’t refute EDT
- An overview of introductions to the problem of naturalized agency
Other valuable resources on decision theory
Here are some pieces on decision theory written by others that we find particularly valuable, although we may not agree with them entirely.
- Eliezer Yudkowsky (2008): Newcomb’s Problem and Regret of Rationality.
- Paul Almond (2010): On Causation and Correlation, Part 1: Evidential decision theory is correct.
- Arif Ahmed (2014): Evidence, Decision and Causality.
- Eliezer Yudkowsky (2010): Timeless Decision Theory.
- Stuart Armstrong (2017): Anthropic Decision Theory.