The Smoking lesion (or variations thereof) are probably the most commonly raised argument against EDT. We think that at least the standard version of this argument doesn’t work because of the tickle defense. Consider the following references:
- Arif Ahmed (2014): Evidence, Decision and Causality, chapter 4.
- Johannes Treutlein (2017): Did EDT get it right all along? Introducing yet another medical Newcomb problem.
- Johannes Treutlein (2017): “Betting on the Past” by Arif Ahmed.
- Paul Almond (2010): On Causation and Correlation, Part 1: Evidential decision theory is correct, section 3.
- Caspar Oesterheld (2017): Are causal decision theorists trying to outsmart conditional probabilities?